"In a time of universal deceit telling the truth is a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

Posts Tagged ‘Ocean Circulation’

World Ocean Heartbeat Fading? ‘Nasty’ Signs North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation is Weakening

In Uncategorized on March 23, 2015 at 7:50 pm

NOAA land ocean temperatuer anomalies

Oldspeak: Yeahhhh…. Not good. NOT GOOD ATAL. Earth’s oceans are in critical condition, heartbeat is fading. A perfect storm of irreversible feedbacks are combining to make the situation worse. Keep in mind the words of Captain Paul Wilson “If the oceans die, we die.” Well, we die anyway, details, details.” -OSJ

robertscribbler

Scientists call it Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). But we may as well think of it as the heartbeat of the world ocean system. And when that heartbeat begins to slow down, we’d best sit up and start paying attention:

(New video produced by climate hawk Peter Sinclair and featuring top scientists Stefan Rahmstorf, Michael Mann, and Jason Box, issues warnings about an observed disruption to ocean circulation due to water freshening in the North Atlantic. This is the kind of work I mentioned last week in my KPFA interview. The kind that should be showing on major network news every single night. Since that probably won’t happen, I urgently ask you to spread this video, together with its critical information, as far and as wide as possible.)

Global Warming Poses Risk to Ocean Circulation, Life Support

For nearly three decades now, prominent climate scientists have been warning…

View original post 1,031 more words

New Study Reveals Warming Atlantic Ocean Contributing To Antarctic Climate Change

In Uncategorized on January 28, 2014 at 4:30 pm
Several glaciers in the Antarctic Peninsula

Oldspeak: On the occasion of the death of long time American Hero, Grio, Revolutionary, Enemy Of The State and Folksinger, Pete Seeger, this quote is apropos. “Technology will save us, if it doesn’t wipe us out first.”   “This the most troubling line of this piece to me. “The bulk of climate change research in Antarctica has focused on how the Pacific Ocean is linked to climate change on the most southern continent. But the Atlantic Ocean, Li and his colleagues report, has been overlooked.” That is utterly mind-boggling to me. How is it that research into the most important continent on our planet in terms of survival of the human species, could just blithely “overlook” the influence of the other major ocean Antarctica is bordered by??? WOW.  So we have computers that can win Jeopardy, a game show,  but none that can figure out that the Atlantic Ocean might be affecting climate change on Antarctica and that we should factor that data in to any climate models?! The immortal words of Young John Connor, leader of the resistance in “Terminator 2: Judgement Day” “We’re not gonna make it are we, people i mean…” is this why the machines turn against us?! Because they calculate that humans are literally incapable of simple logic, critical thought and peaceful coexistence with the biosphere and must be terminated to ensure the survival of the planet all life and machines depend on?! We are living in the Age Of Stupid, continuing to grow our unsustainable, violent, destructive, life extinguishing, painless concentration camp “civilization”. Our “civilization”, our species, most life will become extinct, because we’ve built too many monuments to war, death & consumption and not enough monuments to peace, life & love. Brother/Teacher Seeger’s words tell what he really expected eventually, tinged with the optimism born of an enlightened and long-lived man. He saw a time when technology was thought to be beneficial, he grew up bombarded by the propaganda just as we were. And he lived to see a time when our technology (petroleum, coal, nuclear, genetic modification, fiat currency, mechanization, automation) is driving the global destruction of life on this planet.  He was at least smart enough to leave before everything went to shit. Our technology will not save us, it will wipe us out.” -OSJ

Related Story:

Antarctica warming tied to natural cycle in tropical Atlantic, study says

By James A. Foley @ Nature World News:

As the Atlantic Ocean warms in both its northern and tropical regions, it is contributing to climate change in Antarctica, a new study reveals.

Building upon three decades of atmospheric data, the study, which is published in the journal Nature, reveals new ways in which the climate on Antarctica is affected by distant regional conditions.

“Our findings reveal a previously unknown and surprising force behind climate change that is occurring deep in our southern hemisphere: the Atlantic Ocean,” said lead study author Xichen Li, a doctoral student at New York University’s Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences. “Moreover, the study offers further confirmation that warming in one region can have far-reaching effects in another.”

The climate change going on in Antarctica is dramatic. Over the last few decades researchers have documented the warming taking place on the Antarctic Peninsula as the strongest warming of any region on the planet.

Summertime Antarctic climate changes have been attributed to an increase in greenhouse gases coupled with stratospheric ozone loss. But sources of wintertime climate change have been less clear.

The bulk of climate change research in Antarctica has focused on how the Pacific Ocean is linked to climate change on the most southern continent. But the Atlantic Ocean, Li and his colleagues report, has been overlooked.

In their study the researchers looked specifically at the sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North and tropical Atlantic Ocean.

When comparing changes in SST with changes in Antarctica’s climate, the scientists found strong correlations, most notably that when Atlantic waters warmed, the sea-level pressure in Antarctica’s Amundsen Sea also changed. The SST patterns could also be linked to a redistribution of sea ice between the Antarctic’s Ross and Amundsen-Bellingshausen-Weddell Seas.

But the researchers were quick to note that correlation does not equal causation. Probing further, the team went on to use a global atmospheric model which they used to create a simulated warming of the North Atlantic. The model responded, as the scientists expected, by changing the climate in Antarctica.

“While our data analysis showed a correlation, it was the use of a state-of-the-art computer model that allowed us to see that North Atlantic warming was causing Antarctic climate change and not vice versa,” said study co-author David Holland, a professor at NYU’s Courant Institute.

The research was done in conjunction with the National Science Foundation.

NASA: November 2013 Warmest Ever; Global Warming Since 1997 Underestimated by 50%

In Uncategorized on December 17, 2013 at 8:19 pm

Oldspeak: “While the increase in global temperatures has slowed, the oceans have taken up heat at a faster rate since the turn of the century. Over 90 percent of the overall extra heat goes into the oceans, with only about 2 percent heating the Earth’s atmosphere. The myth of the ‘pause’ is based on ignoring 98 percent of global warming and focusing exclusively on the one bit that’s slowed.” -Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo, National Center for Atmospheric Research

“Following news of the hottest September ever, ocean warming not seen in 10,000 years and the warmest arctic in 120,000 years we have this wonderful news. Until now, no one has even been counting the surface temperature rise of THE LARGEST SURFACE ON EARTH in their global surface temperature rise calculations… The oceans.  Explained away succinctly and unceremoniously as a “data gap”. WOW. How does that happen? How do scientists conduct observations of the earths surface temperature while ignoring 70% OF THE EARTH’S SURFACE WHERE  98% OF HEAT GOES?!?! Sigh. in the immortal words of John Connor “We’re not gonna make it, are we?… People, i mean?” -OSJ

By Joe Romm @ Climate Progress:

Last month saw the hottest global November surface temperature on record, according to the latest data from NASA.

Earth’s surface temperature in °C for each November since 1880 (compared to base period, 1951-1980). Red line is smoothing with a 15-year filter.

Of course, the global surface temperature is only one of many indicators the planet just keeps warming, as I wrote in my September post, “Faux Pause: Ocean Warming, Sea Level Rise And Polar Ice Melt Speed Up, Surface Warming To Follow.”

Now two new studies demolish the myth that warming — including surface warming — has not continued apace. Stefan Rahmstorf, Co-Chair of Earth System Analysis at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, discusses the first paper at RealClimate:

A new study by British and Canadian researchers shows that the global temperature rise of the past 15 years has been greatly underestimated. The reason is the data gaps in the weather station network, especially in the Arctic. If you fill these data gaps using satellite measurements, the warming trend is more than doubled in the widely used HadCRUT4 data, and the much-discussed “warming pause” has virtually disappeared.

“There are no permanent weather stations in the Arctic Ocean, the place on Earth that has been warming fastest,” as New Scientist explained five years ago. “The UK’s Hadley Centre record simply excludes this area, whereas the NASA version assumes its surface temperature is the same as that of the nearest land-based stations.”

As I’ve discussed many times, that’s why we know with high certainty that the planet has actually warmed up more in the past decade than reported by the global temperature records, especially the Hadley Center’s.

The corrected data (bold lines) are shown compared to the uncorrected ones (thin lines). Via RealCliamte.

Rahmstorf explains that two scientists, Kevin Cowtan and Robert Way have devised a new method that uses satellite data to fill in the data gaps:

Cowtan and Way apply their method to the HadCRUT4 data, which are state-of-the-art except for their treatment of data gaps. For 1997-2012 these data show a relatively small warming trend of only 0.05 °C per decade – which has often been misleadingly called a “warming pause”….

But after filling the data gaps this trend is 0.12 °C per decade and thus exactly equal to the long-term trend mentioned by the IPCC.

And so the pause is faux. The second study also reveals “Global warming is unpaused and stuck on fast forward,” as environmental scientist Dana Nuccitelli explains at Skeptical Science:

New research by Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo of the National Center for Atmospheric Research investigates how the warming of the Earth’s climate has behaved over the past 15 years compared with the previous few decades. They conclude that while the rate of increase of average global surface temperatures has slowed since 1998, melting of Arctic ice, rising sea levels, and warming oceans have continued apace.

The widespread mainstream media focus on the slowed global surface warming has led some climate scientists like Trenberth and Fasullo to investigate its causes and how much various factors have contributed to the so-called ‘pause’ or ‘hiatus.’ However, the authors note that while the increase in global temperatures has slowed, the oceans have taken up heat at a faster rate since the turn of the century. Over 90 percent of the overall extra heat goes into the oceans, with only about 2 percent heating the Earth’s atmosphere. The myth of the ‘pause’ is based on ignoring 98 percent of global warming and focusing exclusively on the one bit that’s slowed.

Here’s a graphic illustration of that:

where GW is going

A visual depiction of how much global warming heat is going into the various components of the climate system for the period 1993 to 2003, calculated from IPCC AR4 5.2.2.3

As Nuccitelli explains, this study “also casts doubt on the conclusions of a few recent studies that estimated the Earth’s climate is less sensitive to the increased greenhouse effect than previously thought”:

Trenberth and Fasullo note that using their ocean heating estimate by itself would increase the equilibrium climate sensitivity estimate in the paper referenced by Ridley from 2°C to 2.5°C average global surface warming in response to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and using other more widespread accepted values would bring the estimate in line with the standard value of 3°C.

… the main point of the paper is that global warming is stuck on fast forward. Ice continues to melt, sea levels continue to rise, and the oceans continue to warm rapidly.

In fact, “Greenland Ice Melt Up Nearly Five-Fold Since Mid-1990s,” as we reported in November 2012. Another study that month found “sea level rising 60% faster than projected.”

No wonder Politifact Texas rates the claim, “The Earth is not warming,” as “PANTS ON FIRE – The statement is not accurate and makes a ridiculous claim.”

 

U.N. Weather Agency: “We need to act now… time is not on our side.”- Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Concentrations At Record High. Again.

In Uncategorized on November 12, 2013 at 1:18 pm

By absorbing much of the added heat trapped by atmospheric greenhouse gases, the oceans are delaying some of the impacts of climate change. Photo: WMO/Olga Khoroshunova

Oldspeak: “Heat-trapping gases from human activities have upset the natural balance of our atmosphere and are a major contribution to climate change… Our climate is changing, our weather is more extreme, ice sheets and glaciers are melting and sea levels are rising.  We need to act now, otherwise we will jeopardise the future of our children, grandchildren and many future generations. Time is not on our side.-WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud.

“Translation: “We’re fucked. But our children and grandchildren are exponentially more fucked. ” No one in positions of power anywhere in the 1st world “advanced” nations  is interested in acting now. They’re interested in “extend and pretend”. “Delay and Pray.” They meet at ineffectual climate conferences to negotiate  incremental decades long rates of change, not the radical, revolutionary change necessary right now. There is no implementable global response to the existential threats that our current carbon-nuclear based systems are creating.  There’s no profit in it. The profit is in tar sands. Methane (a.k.a. “Natural”) gas. Coal.  Efforts are underway to expand their extraction and exploitation in previously inaccessible areas of the planet.  These systems require our destruction for its continued sustenance. We are hurtling headlong toward global ecological collapse.  So, enjoy what tolerable time we have left on this dying world, as in short order, life on earth will be come fully intolerable.  Expect the worst, because it’s coming. Sandy & Haiyan are just a primer. Our infinite growth based civilization incontrovertibly assure our destruction.” -OSJ

 

By U.N. News Center:

The amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached a record high in 2012, continuing an upward trend which is driving climate change and which will shape the future of the planet for hundreds and thousands of years, according to the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The agency’s annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin shows that between 1990 and 2012, there was a 32 per cent increase in radiative forcing – the warming effect on the climate – because of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other heat-trapping long-lived gases such as methane and nitrous oxide.

Carbon dioxide, mainly from fossil fuel-related emissions, accounted for 80 per cent of this increase, WMO stated in a news release. The atmospheric increase of CO2 from 2011 to 2012 was higher than its average growth rate over the past 10 years.

What is happening in the atmosphere, said the Geneva-based WMO, is “one part of a much wider picture.” Only about half of the CO2 emitted by human activities remains in the atmosphere, with the rest being absorbed in the biosphere and in the oceans.

The latest findings “highlight yet again how heat-trapping gases from human activities have upset the natural balance of our atmosphere and are a major contribution to climate change,” said WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud.

He recalled that the UN-backed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stressed in its recent Fifth Assessment Report that atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years.

“As a result of this, our climate is changing, our weather is more extreme, ice sheets and glaciers are melting and sea levels are rising,” said Mr. Jarraud.

He underscored that limiting climate change will require large and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. “We need to act now, otherwise we will jeopardize the future of our children, grandchildren and many future generations,” said Mr. Jarraud. “Time is not on our side,” he added.

The Greenhouse Gas Bulletin reports on atmospheric concentrations – and not emissions – of greenhouse gases. Emissions represent what goes into the atmosphere, the agency pointed out. Concentrations represent what remains in the atmosphere after the complex system of interactions between the atmosphere, biosphere and the oceans.

At the same time, the Emissions Gap Report 2013, involving 44 scientific groups coordinated by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), urges wide-ranging global action to close the emissions gap.

If the international community fails to take action, the report warned, the chances of remaining on the least-cost path to keeping global temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius this century will quickly diminish and open the door to a range of challenges.

Under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), governments have agreed to limit the global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

The report, which was released yesterday as leaders prepare to meet for the upcoming UN Climate Change Conference in Warsaw, finds that although pathways exist that could reach the 2-degree Celsius target with higher emissions, not narrowing the gap will exacerbate mitigation challenges after 2020.

This will mean much higher rates of global emission reductions in the medium term; greater lock-in of carbon-intensive infrastructure; greater dependence on often unproven technologies in the medium term; greater costs of mitigation in the medium and long term; and greater risks of failing to meet the 2-degree Celsius target.

“As the report highlights, delayed actions mean a higher rate of climate change in the near term and likely more near-term climate impacts, as well as the continued use of carbon-intensive and energy-intensive infrastructure,” said UNEP Executive Director Achim Steiner.

“This ‘lock-in’ would slow down the introduction of climate-friendly technologies and narrow the developmental choices that would place the global community on the path to a sustainable, green future.

“However,” he added, “the stepping stone of the 2020 target can still be achieved by strengthening current pledges and by further action, including scaling up international cooperation initiatives in areas such as energy efficiency, fossil fuel subsidy reform and renewable energy.”

 

 

Earth’s Oceans: A Heat Sink For Energy

In Uncategorized on August 16, 2013 at 7:28 pm

Oldspeak: “90% of the Earth’s heat is contained in the oceans. The graph starts in 1960, and ever since the late 1970s, its slope looks eerily similar to Mount Everest. Starting in the late 1970s, and accelerating in the 1980s, the graph slopes steeply upwards commensurate with China discovering state capitalism and spewing enormous amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere…. The heat imbalance of the planet… compared… to the equivalent of 400,000 Hiroshima atomic bombs per day, which is nearly impossible to fathom. But, it is how much heat the Earth absorbs per day due to global warming…. The uptake of heat by the oceans, serving as a giant ‘sink’, may account for the recent hiatus in land temperature, as its rate of warming slowed; however, the totality of the earth’s heat is what counts, not just the land temperature, and according to a research paper written by Scott Doney (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)1 :

The ocean slows climate change by storing excess heat and by removing CO2 from the atmosphere… [however] The ocean CO2 sink may become less effective in the future due to warming, increased vertical stratification, and altered ocean circulation, which would act to accelerate climate change.” -Robert Hunziker

“Oh great, polar ice is melting faster from the bottom, and the oceans are rapidly acidifying while warming throughout the water column. At some point all the ocean wildlife will die and the oceans will turn into big toxic radioactive dead zones. Annnnnnd climate change will accelerate. Enjoy your seafood while you can kids. The oceans can only absorb so much of our waste.” -OSJ

By Robert Hunziker @ Dissident Voice:

Over the past 30 years, the Earth has absorbed unbelievably huge amounts of heat… substantially more than in prior decades. Now, scientists have discovered the whereabouts of this abnormality of excessive heat… deep in the oceans, the Earth’s Big Heat Sink! As time passes, the ocean heat sink may one day run over, in turn, prompting global warming to accelerate rapidly, very rapidly.

A little over one year ago, Dr. James Hansen, one of the world’s foremost climate scientists and former Head of NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, spoke at the TED Conference in Long Beach, California, explaining the heat imbalance of the planet, and he compared the imbalance to the equivalent of 400,000 Hiroshima atomic bombs per day, which is nearly impossible to fathom. But, it is how much heat the Earth absorbs per day due to global warming. According to Dr. Hansen, the imbalance means we must reduce CO2 from approximately 400 ppm, which is a new 3-million-year record, back to less than 350 ppm to restore the planet’s energy balance.

But, unfortunately, CO2 continues rising, year-by-year, and there are no signs of tapering. In fact, the rate of increase is increasing, and according to the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, as of July 9, 2013, “The concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere are increasing at an accelerating rate from decade to decade. The latest atmospheric CO2 data is consistent with a continuation of this long-standing trend,” CO2Now.org and confirmed by the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration.

Forty years ago, Hansen published an article in Science magazine that changed the world’s perception of climate, and the article was repeated on the front page of the New York Times. The article concluded that observed warming of 0.4 degrees C the prior century was consistent with the greenhouse effect on increasing CO2. And, that Earth would likely warm in the 1980s. And, that the 21st century would see shifting climate zones, creation of drought-prone regions in North America and Asia, erosion of ice sheets, rising sea levels and opening of the fabled Northwest Passage — all of these impacts have happened or are well under way.

Hansen’s paper resulted in his testifying to Congress in the 1980s. His testimony emphasized that global warming increases both extremes of the Earth’s water cycle, meaning, heat waves and droughts on the one hand directly from the warming but also, because a warmer atmosphere holds more water, rainfall will become more extreme with stronger storms and greater flooding.

Forty years later, the climate is proving him correct… on all counts.

Today, he is more concerned that ever before.

The distribution of the Heat Content of Earth

According to the Journal of Geophysical Research, the total heat content of the Earth is contained within the land and the atmosphere and the oceans. The journal publishes a graph of this relationship, which shows 90% of the Earth’s heat is contained in the oceans. The graph starts in 1960, and ever since the late 1970s, its slope looks eerily similar to Mount Everest. Starting in the late 1970s, and accelerating in the 1980s, the graph slopes steeply upwards commensurate with China discovering state capitalism and spewing enormous amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere. [To get a fuller overview, one should take into account, inter alia, per capita CO2 emissions; China is ranked relatively low. — DV Ed.]

As well, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (“NOAA”) has numerous charts that show the oceans rapidly heating during this same time frame, and it is expected that, over time, the ocean heat will come back up, which is one reason why climatologists predict a looming climate shift to rapid acceleration of surface warming. As well, the enormous uptake of heat by the oceans may offer an additional explanation for why the Arctic Ocean is melting at such a rapid rate with a great deal of the ice melting from underneath.

Ocean Heat Measurement Techniques

The ocean temperature is measured by Argo floats of which 3,000 are deployed every 3 degrees (or 300km) in oceans around the world. Every 10 days, Argo floats descend to a target depth, typically to 2000m (1.24 miles), and over a period of six hours, the floats rise to surface while measuring temperature and salinity. Once back to surface, Argo floats relay data to satellites via an international collaboration with the Jason Satellite Altimeter Mission. (Argo is named after Jason’s ship in Greek mythology.)

The Payback –Acceleration of Global Warming

The uptake of heat by the oceans, serving as a giant ‘sink’, may account for the recent hiatus in land temperature, as its rate of warming slowed; however, the totality of the earth’s heat is what counts, not just the land temperature, and according to a research paper written by Scott Doney (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)1 :

The ocean slows climate change by storing excess heat and by removing CO2 from the atmosphere… [however] The ocean CO2 sink may become less effective in the future due to warming, increased vertical stratification, and altered ocean circulation, which would act to accelerate climate change.

Additionally, according to “Ocean Carbon Biogeochemistry and U.S. CLIVAR Joint Meeting Summary,”2 :

Atmospheric emissions of CO2 not only contribute to warming our climate, but are expected to have a significant impact on ocean circulation, biogeochemistry and ecosystem structure. Those changes will then feedback onto the atmosphere… resulting in a decrease the rates at which the ocean takes up and stores atmospheric carbon dioxide, further enhancing global warming.

As well, the Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences in Barcelona,3 analyzing the slow down of rising surface temperatures during the first decade of this century, concluded: Most of the excess energy was absorbed in the top 700m of the ocean at the onset of the warming pause with 65% of it confined to the tropical Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The uptake by the oceans, according to the lead scientist, resulted in hidden heat from the surface, but it is heat that may return to the atmosphere over the decade, which will stoke global warming.

The Earth’s total heat content since 1960, as illustrated by the Journal of Geophysical Research graph shows where the Earth’s heat has been going: Go to: Institute of Climate Studies, USA to see the graphic display (The heading of the graph is “Earth’s Total Heat Content Anomaly.”)

As mentioned earlier, it is interesting to note the dramatic liftoff in the chart, nearly perpendicular since 1970-80, as the world’s oceans have absorbed extraordinary levels of heat, ever since China discovered state capitalism (1970s-80s) and began powering CO2 into the atmosphere like there is no tomorrow, and as a result, there may not be a tomorrow… as we know it.

Postscript: “You come back impressed, once you’ve been up there, with how thin our little atmosphere is that supports all life here on Earth. So if we foul it up, there’s no coming back from something like that.” (John Glenn, first American, 1962, to orbit the Earth and former U.S. Senator.)

  1. U.S. Clivar Variations (U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Research Program, Washington, DC), Summer 2012, Vol. 10, No.1 []
  2. Annalisa Bracco, Georgia Institute of Technology and Ken Johnson, Monterrey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, U.S. Clivar Variations, Summer 2012, Vol. 10, no. 1 []
  3. “Retrospective Prediction of the Global Warming Slowdown in the Past Decade,” Nature Climate Change, April 7, 2013, by Virginie Guemas, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Isabel Andreu-Burillo and Muhammad Asif []

Robert Hunziker (MA in economic history at DePaul University, Chicago) is a former hedge fund manager and now a professional independent negotiator for worldwide commodity actual transactions and a freelance writer for progressive publications as well as business journals. He can be contacted at: rlhunziker@gmail.com. Read other articles by Robert.